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State of the Estuary Conference: Luna Leopold's Opening Remarks

"The restoration, and thus the fate of this unique geographic feature, the Estuary, is influenced by, and ultimately dependent on, three things: science, the application of knowledge derived from science, and the administrative-political forces operating.

"If there is validity to this simplified characterization of a complex subject, then it follows that we should pay attention to these principal forces, and not be satisfied with lengthy discussions of peripheral matters that are of small importance to the larger picture.

"To make the best use of science, it would be well to develop a carefully chosen list of the major scientific questions that stand unanswered. These might be divided into different magnitudes of scale such as regional problems, subregional problems and local ones.

"In what direction will the scientific capability be deployed? It might be argued that more is known about the Bay itself than about the relation of the Bay to its watersheds. We can expect an increasing pressure to develop new knowledge about watershed functions, but it must be realized that the watersheds involve more diverse problems and different circumstances than occur in the Bay's waters and on its shores. This complexity poses a conundrum in that the administrative-political arms want answers that come quickly and with assurance. These expectations are antithetical to the operation of good science which is usually time-consuming and provides a tentative and far from assured answer. Most will require field observations and cannot be solved even with the most sophisticated computer models.

"The kinds of questions that will no doubt arise include the following: Where in the watershed are the principal sources of sediment and contaminants and what processes provide them? What is the effect of tidal marshes on the sediment budget and on the tidal prism of the whole Bay? How do marshes act as filters of sediment and contaminants, and what is the relation of plant architecture in the marsh to the filtering effect? "Exploring such questions will take time and effort and all proposed shortcuts must be viewed with skepticism.

"With regard to the application of science, we now have an organized and practical program of monitoring trace elements in bay waters. However, we are far from sure how to use this information to influence the production of, or ameliorate the effects of, undesirable trace elements.

"The U.S.Geological Survey has made great contributions to knowledge of the Bay in their studies of circulation of bay waters, of primary production, of benthic cores, to name just a few subjects.

"On wetlands that border the Bay, we have just completed a study of the goals indicating what habitats in what quantities seem desirable for the health and welfare of the ecotypes. This is a real accomplishment in the application of scientific knowledge to practical problems. This project has involved hundreds of experienced people all volunteering their help. The next step, monitoring change and hopefully progress, is still ahead.

"Another valuable application of science to practical problems is the development of the S.F. Estuary Institute's EcoAtlas. It shows in amazing detail on maps the ecotypes in the Bay region as of 1800 AD and again in the present year. Knowledge of original conditions is essential for estimating the possible endpoints of restoration attempts.

"These examples of application of scientific knowledge remind us that science gives us results that are often hesitant, partial and sometimes useless. But these qualifications of the expectations of science should not be considered too pessimistic or too discouraging, in view of the administrative-political milieu in which bay restoration exists. There is a large variety of federal, state, and private organizations, each having particular interests and backing, as well as dedicated public groups devoted to preserving and improving the Bay. All are under the crushing force emanating from the national pursuit of unlimited growth.

"This relentless striving for expansion applies increasing stress to all natural systems and is felt in the Estuary in a multitude of ways. The best science and its most useful application may be negated by failure of the administrative political establishment to draw some limits on the exposure of the ecosystem to overpowering destructive pressure. Mitigation of destructive action, even when successful, is ultimately an admission of defeat.

"We must persuade the American public that it is in their interest to slow, if not stem, the forces that tend to destroy our ecological base. It is my opinion that science, and the application of science, will not accomplish the aims that will be elucidated in the present conference. Rather we must give highest priority to altering those administrative-political forces that contribute to degradation of the Estuary."

Luna Leopold is former chief of hydrology at the U.S. Geological Survey and Professor Emeritus of Geology and Landscape Architecture at U.C. Berkeley.

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