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Possibly the biggest threat to the Estuary is sea level rise associated with climate change. A March 2009 report by the Pacific Institute (Heberger, et al. 2009) (www.pacinst.org) found that under medium to medium-high emissions scenarios, mean sea level along the California coast will rise from 1.0 to 1.4 meters—or four and a half feet—by the year 2100. A one-meter sea-level rise would threaten commercial, residential, and industrial structures around the Bay valued at $48 billion (year 1990 dollars); substantial areas of wetlands around the Bay could be damaged or lost. A rise in sea level of 1.4 meters would flood approximately 150 square miles or land immediately adjacent to current wetlands, which could potentially create new wetlands if those areas are protected from development. However, wetlands that have been recently restored around the Estuary could be inundated by higher water if they have not had sufficient time to become established first.
Climate change may also impact rivers and streams, and even the shape of the Estuary. The Estuary watershed may experience larger winter storms, more runoff from individual storm events, and more droughts with less rain, resulting in less water in our streams and rivers—and/or warmer water, to the detriment of fish. Sea level rise will also likely increase sediment demand in the Estuary, since the rate of sea level rise will probably be faster than the amount of sediment being deposited into the Estuary from its tributary rivers and streams. Newly restored wetlands could erode as could old sediment deposits on the floor of the Estuary, possibly exposing long-buried contaminants.
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Four decades ago, three determined women managed to keep the Bay from being squeezed around its edges by development and shrunk to the size of a small lake. But some Bay planners warn that by 2100, the Bay could have an equally unwelcome look. "Intertidal areas will be inundated and become Bay bottom," says the Bay Conservation and Development Commission's Will Travis, relying on projections provided by the California Climate Change Center. "The Bay by default will be a big reflecting pool, but not an estuarine system." Furthermore, the "pool" might have walls around it. "If we have a one-meter rise in sea level including the Bay in t... ... READ MORE |
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